TL;DR
Turn your quiet moments into listening time
- Thousands of audiobooks, podcasts and originals
- Listen on your phone, tablet or Echo — also offline
- Cancel anytime
Tom Wojcik’s report, using figures through 26 September, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil markets, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies. It also describes pressure on European potato harvests and Poland’s exposure to energy and borrowing risks. The report does not provide a complete assessment of winter heating supplies or final harvest outcomes.
Tom Wojcik, a Polish writer, says the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into oil prices, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies, with potential consequences for food harvests and winter heating. His report, which cites figures through 26 September 2026, links the Gulf conflict to pressures in Europe and beyond while stressing that several effects are still unfolding.
Wojcik’s account says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the route has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. The report says Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on 24 September.
Diplomatic efforts had not resolved the disruption by the report’s cutoff. Wojcik says Iran delivered Washington a written proposal on 22 September calling for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it. The report also describes a separate risk along the Red Sea route: Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during September, according to Wojcik.
The effects reach fuel distribution as well as oil markets. In France, official figures cited by the report showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on 20 September, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage. Around nine in ten affected stations reportedly belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew drivers seeking lower prices. The official count did not include stations that still had at least one petrol grade and diesel available, Wojcik says.
Fuel Costs Reach Food and Heating
The report’s central point is that an energy shock can travel through connected systems. Oil prices affect transport; transport costs affect the movement of food, while the strait normally carries as much as 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the figures Wojcik cites. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those outcomes are forecasts, not confirmed harvest losses.
The pressure arrives on top of existing food insecurity. Wojcik says the 2025 Global Report on Food Crises recorded two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and that funding for food assistance fell an estimated 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. The World Food Programme estimates sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. The estimate describes a possible effect, not a count of people already pushed into that condition.
For Poland, the story also concerns winter energy and public finances. Wojcik identifies his country as a coal and imported-gas user that borders Ukraine and finances arms purchases through borrowing. His framing highlights several exposures at once, but the report excerpt does not establish how much heating fuel Poland will have or how much household costs will rise.
War, Supply Routes and Harvests
Wojcik links the Gulf disruption with Russia’s war against Ukraine. Citing the IEA, he says Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times in 2026, while Russian refining output fell to a two-decade low. Half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants reportedly cut or halted output during September, and Moscow restricted fuel exports. US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on 10 September, according to the report. It also says the US president called Kyiv to ask it to stop attacks on diesel targets.
The report points to a sharp reversal in Europe’s potato sector. Poland produced about 7 million tonnes in 2025, 18 percent more than the year before, and farmers were selling below cost by spring. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less, according to Wojcik. After five heatwaves and drought, their growers’ organisation expected a harvest 25 percent lower. In Belgium, the report says, processing-potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days. These figures describe the report’s cited conditions and expectations; final harvest totals were not provided.
Wojcik also describes a sharp rise in a tanker-shipping fund, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF. It was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, he says, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on 10 September, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The report notes that the fund is small and that its manager said rates could fall if the strait reopens.
“The world is not ending.”
— Tom Wojcik, in the report
Winter Supplies and Harvests Remain Open
The report does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, whether a ceasefire can be reached, or whether military action will resume. It also does not provide a verified forecast of Poland’s winter heating supply or the resulting household costs. The fertiliser disruption may affect yields later, but final crop results remain uncertain as of the report’s 26 September cutoff.
Some figures are presented as official counts, while others are estimates, forecasts or market observations attributed by Wojcik to organisations and industry sources. The account notes that France’s station count may understate local gaps because of how a station is classified as out of fuel. It does not provide a comparable measure of shortages across all affected countries.
Diplomacy and Crop Data Ahead
The next major development is whether negotiations produce a ceasefire or a phased reopening of the strait. Until then, tanker traffic, crude prices and shipping costs remain indicators of how the closure is affecting energy markets. The report offers no confirmed date for renewed talks or for the route to reopen.
Food effects will become clearer as late-2026 and 2027 harvests are measured. European crop totals, fertiliser availability and updated food-security assessments can show whether the warnings cited by Wojcik translate into lower production or increased need for assistance. For households and governments, winter fuel availability and prices will also need to be assessed as the heating season progresses.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with tanker traffic down more than 90 percent, according to Tom Wojcik’s account. The report traces possible effects through fuel markets, fertiliser supplies and food production.
Does the report say France has run out of fuel?
No. It says official figures showed 15 percent of stations were out of petrol or diesel on 20 September. France’s government ruled out a national shortage, and the report links many dry stations to demand at TotalEnergies locations with a price cap.
Are food shortages already confirmed as a result?
The report cites an FAO warning that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those are expected risks; the report does not establish final harvest losses caused by the closure.
What remains unknown for Poland?
The report describes Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas and its exposure to regional conflict, but it does not give a confirmed winter heating supply forecast or a specific estimate of household cost increases.
Source: hn
